Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady – June 9 2021

General Michelle Foster 9 Jun

Bank of Canada Holds Rates and QE Steady–Asserting That Both the Upside in Inflation and the Downside in GDP is Temporary
The Bank of Canada left the benchmark overnight policy rate unchanged at 0.25% and maintained its current pace of GoC bond purchases at its current pace. The Governing Council renewed its pledge to refrain from raising rates until the damage from the pandemic is fully repaired. The $3 billion weekly pace of bond-buying–known as quantitative easing–will decline as the recovery proceeds. In April, at their last meeting, the Bank reduced the pace of GoC bond buying from $4 billion to $3 billion per week. The central bank was among the first from advanced economies to shift to a less expansionary policy in April when it accelerated the timetable for a possible interest-rate increase and pared back its bond purchases.

The Bank’s view regarding the domestic economy appears to be little changed despite the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) overestimating Q1 GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points. Indeed, today’s Policy Statement notes that Q1 GDP growth was “a robust 5.6 percent” and that the details of the report point to “rising confidence and resilient demand.” Concerning Q2, the third wave lockdowns are “dampening economic activity…largely as anticipated.” Note that the April MPR projected 3.5% growth in Q2 GDP, while the consensus forecast currently sits at 0% for Q2, with downside risk.

The Bank also noted that “Recent jobs data show that workers in contact-sensitive sectors have once again been most affected. The employment rate remains well below its pre-pandemic level, with low-wage workers, youth and women continuing to bear the brunt of job losses.” The chart below shows that the labour market is still below the Bank’s target for a full recovery.

Bank of Canada Upbeat Over the Medium Term

“With vaccinations proceeding at a faster pace, and provincial containment restrictions on an easing path over the summer, the Canadian economy is expected to rebound strongly, led by consumer spending. Housing market activity is expected to moderate but remain elevated.”

On the inflation front, there were no surprises. The Statement says that inflation has risen to the top of the 1-3% control range due to base effects and gasoline prices. The rise in the core measures is blamed on temporary factors as well. The Bank anticipates headline inflation will stay around 3% through the summer before pulling back later in the year.On the cautious side, the BoC highlights that the labour market still has a way to go before healing. There’s also uncertainty surrounding COVID variants.

The concluding paragraph didn’t change much. It reiterates that there “remains considerable excess capacity” and that policy rates will stay at the lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed,” which the April MPR said was in 2022H2. Concerning further tapering, the “assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery” will guide that decision.

The C$ barely garnered a mention yet again, with the Statement noting the recent gains and accompanying rise in commodity prices. The market might view the lack of concern here as a green light for further strength.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada is looking through “transitory” ups in inflation and downs in GDP. With vaccination rates continuing to ramp up significantly, and provinces beginning a gradual reopening process, the economy will rebound substantially beginning in June.

Indeed, with the near-term growth outlook increasingly bright, concerns have shifted to rising production input prices and the prospect for a sharp recovery in consumer demand to stoke inflation pressures. For now, the BoC is positing that near-term increases in consumer price growth rates will prove ‘transitory.’ But there have also been signs of harder-to-dismiss firming in most measures of underlying price growth gauges, including the BoC’s own preferred core measures edging up towards or above the 2% inflation target.

July’s meeting will likely be a bit more interesting with the Bank issuing more details in another Monetary Policy Report. We don’t see any need for dramatic forecast revisions at this stage, and the BoC’s guidance that rates might have to start increasing in the second half of next year remains appropriate. It looks like the main question will be around further tapering of the BoC’s asset purchases. The BoC didn’t signal an imminent taper (we didn’t think it would) but said decisions regarding the pace of purchases would be guided by its assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. If incoming data aligns with the BoC’s forecasts, we could see it reduce weekly bond-buying again in July to $2 billion per week from $3 billion. If not, September might serve as a backup as the bank seeks to prevent its footprint in the bond market (nearly 44% at the end of May) from becoming too large while at the same time setting itself up to shift QE to reinvestment only well in advance of the first interest rate hike.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca

Bank of Canada Holds Rates and Bond-Buying Steady

General Michelle Foster 10 Mar

Much has changed since the Bank of Canada’s last decision on January 20. While the second pandemic wave was raging, new lockdowns were implemented in late 2020, and there were fears that the economy, in consequence, was likely to grow at a 4.8% annual rate in Q4 and contract in Q1. Instead, the lockdowns were less disruptive than feared, as Q4 growth came in at a surprisingly strong 9.6% annual rate–double the pace expected by the Bank.

Rather than a contraction in  Q1 this year, Statistics Canada’s flash estimate for January growth was 0.5% (not annualized). Strength in January came from housing, resources and government spending, and the mild weather likely helped. In today’s decision statement, the central bank acknowledged that “the economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated to the second wave of the virus and the associated containment measures.”  The BoC now expects the economy to grow in the first quarter. “Consumers and businesses are adapting to containment measures, and housing market activity has been much stronger than expected. Improving foreign demand and higher commodity prices have also brightened the prospects for exports and business investment.”

A massive $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the US is also about to turbocharge Canada’s largest trading partner’s economy, which will be a huge boon to the global economy and explains why commodity prices and bond yields have risen substantially in recent months. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar but has appreciated against most other currencies.

Economists now expect Canada to expand at a 5.5% pace this year versus a 4% projection by the Bank of Canada in January. Going into today’s meeting, no one expected the Bank to raise the overnight policy rate, but markets were pricing in more than a 50% chance of an increase by this time next year, up from about 25% odds in January.

On the other hand, the BoC continued to emphasize the risks to the outlook and the huge degree of slack in the economy. “The labour market is a long way from recovery, with employment still well below pre-COVID levels. Low-wage workers, young people and women have borne the brunt of the job losses. The spread of more transmissible variants of the virus poses the largest downside risk to activity, as localized outbreaks and restrictions could restrain growth and add choppiness to the recovery.”

The Bank also attributed the recent rise in inflation was due to temporary factors. One year ago, many prices fell with the onslaught of the pandemic, so that year-over-year comparisons will rise for a while because of these base-year effects combined with higher gasoline prices pushed up by the recent run-up in oil prices. The Governing Council expects CPI inflation to moderate as these effects dissipate and excess capacity continues to exert downward pressure.

According to the policy statement, “While economic prospects have improved, the Governing Council judges that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s January projection, this does not happen until 2023.” The Bank will continue its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve until the recovery is well underway.  As the Governing Council continues to gain confidence in the recovery’s strength, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required. The central bank will “continue to provide the appropriate monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.”
Bottom Line

The Bank gave no indication when it might start to taper its bond-buying. The next decision date is on April 21, when a full economic forecast will be released in the April Monetary Policy Report. Governor Macklem is more dovish than many had expected and will err on the side of caution. When the central bank starts tapering its asset purchases, it will be the equivalent of easing off the accelerator rather than applying the brakes. The Bank of Canada has been buying a minimum of $4 billion in federal government bonds each week to help keep borrowing costs low. That pace may no longer be warranted with an outlook that appears to show the economy absorbing all excess slack by next year, ahead of the Bank of Canada’s 2023 timeline for closing the so-called output gap.

Longer-Term Yields are Rising Despite Central Bank Inaction

General Michelle Foster 23 Feb

While central banks hold overnight rates at record lows, anchoring short-term interest rates and the prime rate, mid-to-long-term government yields have been rising since early this month. As the chart below shows, the 5-year Government of Canada bond, upon which mortgage rates are generally tethered, are currently at 0.69%, up 27 basis points since January 29th. This is the highest 5-year yield since late-March 2020.  Canadian bond yields have increased more than in the US, perhaps due to the surge in commodity prices, most notably oil, which has climbed 16.9% in just the past month, taking the year-to-date gain to 27%.

Growing government debt arising from fiscal measures to cushion the blow of the pandemic and stimulate the economy has set the stage for higher government bond yields in much of the developed world.

Inflation concerns are mounting. In a rare move, yesterday Statistics Canada revised up its estimate of core inflation–unveiled only five days ago–from 1.5% to 1.77%. The result is an inflation picture that is more elevated than reported last week, at a time when investors are becoming more worried about global price pressures. The core CPI is the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, and it has rattled markets that it now appears to be running at nearly a 1.8% year-over-year pace.

While inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on higher energy costs, policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem see little immediate threat from rising prices, even with extraordinary levels of stimulus coursing through the economy. Despite a temporary pickup early this year, the Bank of Canada doesn’t anticipate inflation will sustainably return to its 2% target until 2023. Macklem speaks in Calgary later today, and he is likely to suggest that the Canadian economy is still far from an inflationary threshold.

Keep in mind that Canada’s economy has considerable slack with unemployment rising in recent months and the lockdown continuing for at least a couple more weeks in the GTA. Moreover, Canada has fallen far beyond other countries in the vaccine rollout.

The biggest vaccination campaign in history is currently underway. More than 209 million doses have been administered across 92 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg News. The latest pace was roughly 6.24 million doses a day. Israel has administered more than 82 doses of vaccine per 100 people, the UK is at 27.5, and the US is at 19.3. Canada, on the other hand, has administered only 4.1 doses per 100 people, now ranking 43rd in the world (see chart below).

This slow start to the rollout likely portends a longer period of economic underperformance.

Bottom Line

Some upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates might be in store, although the Big Five Banks have yet to respond, and the qualifying rate remains at 4.79%, well above contract rates. Without any prospect of near-term tightening by the Bank of Canada, variable rate mortgage rates–typically tied to the prime rate–will remain stable. But mortgage rates have moved up at some of the non-bank lenders. No question, the economy’s trajectory and interest rates will be linked to the return to the ‘new normal’ following the pandemic. Good news on the pandemic front inevitably means higher mortgage rates in 2022-23–if not sooner.Blog post by Sherry Cooper

Canadian Jobs Market Tanks in December

General Michelle Foster 12 Jan

Canadian employment fell 62,600 last month, a bit weaker than expected, following seven months of recovery (see chart below). The rapid rise in COVID cases and the ensuing lockdown measures in many key regions caused the net loss in jobs in the mid-December survey. Especially hard hit were workers at restaurants and hotels who suffered a hefty 56,700 employment loss.

The jobless rate rose a tick to 8.6%–well below the peak of 13.7% in April–but still three percentage points above its pre-pandemic level.

However, there were some bright spots as several sectors churned out small gains (see second chart below). Among them were finance, insurance and real estate, as well as scientific and tech services. Manufacturing rose 15,400, and public administration reported solid gains.

On a positive note, full-time jobs actually rose 36,500, and average wages pushed back up and are now 5.6% higher than one year ago. This outsized gain, in part, reflects the loss in so many low-wage jobs.

Part-time jobs were down sharply in December, led by losses among workers aged 24 and under and those aged 55 and older. Also, the number of self-employed workers fell by 62,000, its lowest point since the pandemic began.

The December loss of jobs left employment down 571,600 (or -3.0%) from year-ago levels, the deepest annual decline since 1982–but far better than the April reading of -15% y/y. The 2020 job loss in Canada of -3.0% is also a relatively mild downturn compared to today’s US job market release for December, which reported a -6.2% y/y drop in employment. In Canada, the 332,300 y/y loss in accommodation and food services employment alone accounted for 58% of our annual job loss.

Employment was down in nine out of ten provinces last month. The lucky exception was British Columbia. None of the provinces stood out on the low side. The table below shows the unemployment rate by province. Jobless rates rise and fall with labour force participation rates. You are not considered unemployed if you are not seeking work. The number of people counted as either employed or unemployed dropped by 42,000 (-0.2%) in December, the first significant decline since April. Core-aged women and young males were largely responsible for the fall.

Bottom Line

It certainly doesn’t appear that the lockdowns will be lifted anytime soon. We keep hitting new records in the number of Covid cases, and the more contagious Covid variant is upon us. What’s more, the rollout of the vaccine has been disturbingly slow. So until winter is behind us, there is unlikely to be a meaningful opening of the economy. All things considered, Canada’s economy has been relatively resilient. That’s not surprising given the government income support–the most generous in the G7 countries. Moreover, financial conditions are extremely accommodative.

Although no one is coming through the pandemic unscathed, most of the employment losses have been lower-paying jobs. Many higher-income earners continue to work from home. And even though the pandemic is worsening, many of Canada’s housing markets recorded their strongest December ever. Rock-bottom interest rates, high household savings and changing housing needs turned 2020 into a spectacular year for housing activity.

According to local real estate boards, December resales were surprisingly strong for what is typically a quiet month. Existing home sales surged between 32% y/y in Montreal, Ottawa and Edmonton and 65% y/y in Toronto based on early results. More distant suburbs attracted many families looking for more space with less concern about long commutes when jobs can be conducted at home. Property values continued to appreciate at accelerating rates in most markets. Downtown condo prices still bucked the trend due to ample inventories in Canada’s largest cities—the downturn in the rental market has prompted many condo investors to sell. That said, softer condo prices are now drawing more buyers in. Existing condo sales soared virtually everywhere in December.

Housing is likely to continue to cushion the blow of the pandemic on the overall economy. And while not everyone is sharing in this windfall, it will ultimately help pave the way to better employment gains in the spring.

However, no question that the bright light at the end of the very dark pandemic tunnel is a widely dispersed vaccine. PM Trudeau reasserted this week that the vaccine will be available to all who want it by September 2021. At the pace, it is now getting into people’s arms, that will not happen. Just over 0.6% of Canada’s population was vaccinated as of Thursday, January 7. By comparison, the US had vaccinated 1.8% of its population by that date, and Israel had inoculated nearly 20%, according to Our World in Data, a nonprofit research project at the University of Oxford. The U.K. had vaccinated about 1.9% of its population by Jan. 3, the latest date for which vaccination numbers were available (see the chart below).

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

Getting Your Home Winter Ready

General Michelle Foster 17 Nov

Winter is coming… With the changing of the seasons, it can be a good time to take stock of your home and ensure you are ready for the winter and it’s colder weather. To help you feel more comfortable, save on bills and prevent future repair costs, there are some simple things you can do to prepare for the coming season.

Tending to minor problems yourself, or booking a professional now, will save you time and aggravation later. Once the poor weather hit, it makes it harder to tackle home maintenance jobs!

MIND THE GAPS

Search exterior window frames, doors and siding for cracks and gaps where water could get in. Doors and windows commonly have gaps that let cold in and heat out. Some will be easy to fill or fix yourself but could save you money and damage down the line!

CHECK YOUR PIPES

Checking your pipe joints for leaks that could cause rot and damage will save you trouble in the future. Repair any cracks you find, especially those around electrical outlets and alarm system lines. Another tip is covering your pipes around your hot water tank. This will help them hold the heat in and keep the water warmer longer without fuel. Many inexpensive options are available for all tank and pipe sizes. Make use of blankets if you are on a budget!

INSULATION IS KEY!

On a snowy day go outside and look at your roof; you should see snow on the roof. If you can see your roof that means the attic is not insulated well, therefore heat is escaping and melting the snow. Almost any home can benefit from added insulation; invest in a good solution now to save you in the future. Foam pipe insulation is easy to install and can prevent energy loss and potential water damage from frozen pipes. Plus, if you find you are really having a hard time keeping the heat in, you can consider  insulated flooring! Massive heat loss occurs through your floors. Even an added area rug can improve insulation, and make sure to fill any gaps in your flooring with silicone.

SERVICE YOUR HEAT SOURCE

Before Winter starts, be sure to have a professional check and clean your heat sources. You should have your chimney cleaned regularly if heated by wood, or make sure to update your oil heater’s filters and service gas furnaces regularly. A technician can check for both efficiency and hazards.

MANAGE YOUR THERMOSTAT

As tempting as it is to turn your heat all the way up in the winter, proper thermostat management will help you save in the long run. Have your heat sources inspected for efficiency. Also be sure to check for gaps and drafts in your home to help it retain heat much better! By using a thermostat with a timer, you can save even more! Turn it on early so the room heats up in time for use versus cranking the heat when you need to get warm quickly. Have the heat turn off 30 minutes before bed or before leaving the home. If you find you are chilly at night, a safely positioned space heater and closed door will be much cheaper!

CLOSE THAT DOOR!

To keep your heating system from working too hard, close doors when rooms are not in use. This prevents heat transfer out of vacant rooms, and will ensure your active space remains warm and cozy.

CREATE A STORM KIT

A storm kit is a handy source of essential items in the event of losing power. Consider what you and your family might need. Some basics include a flashlight with new batteries, candles, matches, a portable radio, water and snacks. Keep your kit somewhere easy to access.

Credit-Free Christmas in 5 Steps

General Michelle Foster 6 Nov

The holidays are a beautiful time of year, filled with sparkling lights and delicious meals and overplayed tunes.

As much as these celebrations bring us joy and harmony, they can also bring us stress. This is particularly true when it comes to your finances! This year, aim for a credit-free Christmas! With a little planning, there are a few ways you can make sure your holidays are stress and credit-free.

MANAGE YOUR EXPECTATIONS

Do you remember how last year made you feel? Were your holidays refreshing? Or did you find them draining and you are still trying to figure out how to pay off your bills? In fact, most of us want holidays to be energizing and provide a feeling of togetherness, which comes down to more than just spending money. Deciding your expectations for the holidays, makes it easier to work towards things that create that result – and avoid things that don’t!

WHAT ARE YOUR GOALS?

What is your goal for the holiday? Are you looking to plan an extravagant black-tie party or more of a low-key celebration? Maybe you just want to hang out with lots of family and friends (and food!)? Or perhaps you would like to get away for the holidays? Share your thoughts with your family and make a decision that works for everyone. Talking about the holidays ahead of time puts everyone on the same page with no surprises.

CREDIT-FREE CHRISTMAS WITH A BUDGET

Once you have decided what your expectations and goals for the holiday, create a budget that works for you. Take a look at your monthly budget and determine what you have available. Whether you put money aside each month to tackle your list, or pick up a few items per paycheck, a little planning can go a long way to creating a credit-free Christmas! After you create your budget, you will want a list of everything you need. Not just individual gifts! Also make sure to take stock of any decorations, baking or food items, clothing or event tickets that you may need to invest in.

YOUR CREDIT-FREE CHRISTMAS STARTS NOW!

As someone who grew up with a mom who started holiday shopping in June, I know a good budget and early planning makes a difference. Instead of lumping your entire holiday budget into a couple paychecks, try shopping for gifts and cute decor all year long. Not only will this help you feel more organized, but it can help you manage your budget as well. Planning ahead and giving yourself more time allows you to scoop up incredible deals throughout the year (cue seasonal clearance sales) which means you can spread your budget even farther – without going over!

DON’T FEAR HELP

credit-free Christmas

The holidays are a time where we are supposed to share experiences and support each other. If you are hosting a big holiday dinner this year, don’t be afraid to ask your family to bring appies or drinks. If you are buying gifts for friends, set a limit or challenge everyone to make something by hand! Homemade gifts can often feel more special and it creates a fun exchange for you and your friends. There are many incredible ways to reduce stress and help get others involved so that the holiday is perfect for everyone.

BEYOND THE SPENDING

It is easy to get caught up in the consumerism and expectations of the holidays. Is dinner perfect? Did you buy enough gifts? Did you invite everyone? Is everyone happy? But don’t forget yourself in your efforts to please others.

Even though the holidays can feel hectic, it is important to celebrate YOU and be grateful for what you have – even if you weren’t able to check off all the boxes. Life happens, but the most important thing is that we live it while we can. This is also helpful for children as I am sure most of us would prefer our kids grew up grateful and happy, instead of in-debt and stressed due to preconceived notions of what holidays should be.

Your holiday is just that – YOURS. Spend it whichever way brings you the most joy and the least amount of stress on your pocketbook.

Getting a Mortgage When You’re New to Canada

General Michelle Foster 5 Nov

Canada has seen a surge of international migration over the last few years. In 2019, we welcomed a total of 313,580 immigrants to the country! This is an increase of 40,000 individuals when compared to 2017 numbers.

New to Canada Mortgages

According to planned immigration levels, it is estimated that Canada will receive 341,000 permanent residents in 2020. In 2021, we are expecting 351,000 and 361,000 in 2022. Federal Immigration Minister, Marco Mendicino, stated that by 2022, “the year’s new permanent residents in Canada will account for one per cent of the population”.

With all these new faces wanting to plant roots in this great country, we wanted to touch base on how new immigrants can qualify to be homeowners!

PERMANENT RESIDENTS

If you are already a Permanent Resident or have received confirmation of Permanent Resident Status, you are eligible for a typical mortgage with a 5% down payment – assuming you have good credit.

NOT YET PERMANENT RESIDENTS OR HAVE LIMITED CREDIT

For Permanent Residents with limited credit, or individuals who have not yet qualified for Permanent Residency, there are still options! In fact, there are several ‘New to Canada’ mortgage programs. These are offered by CMHC, Sagen and Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance, and cater to this group of homebuyers.

NEW TO CANADA PROGRAMS

To qualify for New to Canada programs, you must have immigrated or relocated to Canada within the last 60 months and have had three months minimum full-time employment in Canada.

Individuals looking for 90% credit, a letter of reference from a recognized financial institution. Or, you will be required to provide six (6) months of bank statements from a primary account.

If you are seeking credit of 90.01% to 95%, you will need to produce an international credit report (Equifax or Transunion) demonstrating a strong credit profile. Or you will need to provide two alternative sources of credit, which demonstrate timely payments for the past 12 months. The alternative sources must include rental payment history and another alternative. This could be hydro/utilities, telephone, cable, cell phone or auto insurance.

ALTERNATIVE LENDERS

Another option for New to Canada residents, depending on your residency status and credit history, are alternative lenders such as B-Lenders and MIC’s (Mortgage Investment Operation). If you do not qualify for the New to Canada programs, or a standard mortgage, reach out to a DLC Mortgage Broker and they can help you navigate the alternative options!

New to Canada? What to do before submitting your mortgage application

Utilizing a mortgage professional will ensure you understand your options. They can also help determine the best program and mortgage choice for you. Before you talk with a mortgage professional, there are a few things you need to know when it comes to submitting an application – and getting approved – for your first mortgage in Canada:

SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS!

If you’re new to the country but have weak credit, supporting documents will be needed. These may include: proof of income, 12 months worth of rental payments or letter from landlord, documented savings, bank statements and/or letter of reference from recognized financial institution. These documents all paint the picture of whether you are a safe investment for a lender.

BUILD YOUR CREDIT RATING!

This is one of the most important aspects to getting a mortgage! Your credit rating determines your reliability as a borrower. In turn, this will determine your down payment rate. A great way to build your credit is by getting a credit card to use and pay off each month. Paying other bills such as utilities, cell phones and rent can also contribute to your credit score and reliability.

START SAVING! 

One of the most expensive aspects of home ownership is the down payment, which is an upfront cost but is vital to securing your future. As mentioned, the down payment can either be 5% or 10% depending on your status. However, if the purchase price exceeds $500,000, the minimum down payment will be 5% for the first $500,000 and 10% of any amount over $500,000 – regardless of your residency status.

CHOOSE A MORTGAGE PROVIDER! 

Once you are ready to get your mortgage, you need get in touch with a local mortgage professional. They can help you review your options and find the best mortgage product to suit your needs.

Buying a house is an exciting step for anyone, but especially for individuals who are new to the country. As daunting as it may seem, purchasing a home is completely possible with a little knowledge and preparation. If you are new to Canada and looking to get a mortgage, connect with a DLC Mortgage Professional today for expert advice and options that best suit you!

Canadian Home Sales and Prices Set Records Again in September

General Michelle Foster 16 Oct

Canadian Home Sales and Prices Set Another Record High in September

Today’s release of September housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales rose 0.9% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) (see chart below). This continues the rebound in housing that began five months ago amid record-tight market conditions.

“Along with historic supply shortages in a number of regions, fierce competition among buyers has been putting upward pressure on home prices. Much of that was pent-up demand from the spring that came forward as our economies opened back up over the summer,” said Costa Poulopoulos, Chair of CREA.

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Reasons have been cited for this – pent-up demand from the lockdowns, Government support to date, ultra-low interest rates, and the composition of job losses to name a few. I would also remind everyone that sales were almost setting records and markets were almost this tight back in February so we were already close to where things are now, as far away from Goldilocks territory as we had ever been before. But I think another wildcard factor to consider, which has no historical precedent, is the value of one’s home during this time. Home has been our workplace, our kids’ schools, the gym, the park and more. Personal space is more important than ever.”

The modest uptick in home sales nationally reflected diverse results regionally with about 60% of local markets seeing gains. Increases in Ottawa, Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Calgary and Hamilton-Burlington sales were mostly offset by declines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal; although, activity in the two largest Canadian markets is still historically very strong.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 45.6% y-o-y gain in September. It was a new record for the month of September by a margin of  20,000 transactions, the equivalent of a normal month of September with an entire month of December tacked on. Sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets on a year-over-year basis.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 10.2% in September, reversing the surge to record levels seen August. New supply was down in two-thirds of local markets, led by declines in and around Vancouver and the GTA.

With sales edging up in September and new supply dropping back, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 77.2% – the highest in almost 20 years and the third-highest monthly level on record for the measure.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other two-thirds of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.
There were just 2.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets are now into weeks of inventory rather than months. Much of the province of Ontario is close to or under one month of inventory.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.3% m-o-m in September 2020. Of the 39 markets now tracked by the index, all but two were up between August and September.

As buyers are moving further away from city centres, CREA added a large number of Ontario markets to the MLS® HPI this month. The list includes Bancroft and Area, Brantford Region, Cambridge, Grey Bruce Owen Sound, Huron Perth, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, the Lakelands (Muskoka-Haliburton-Orillia-Parry Sound), London & St. Thomas, Mississauga, North Bay, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Quinte & District, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 10.3% on a y-o-y basis in September – the biggest gain since August 2017. The largest y-o-y gains in the 22-23% range were recorded in Bancroft and Area, Quinte & District, Ottawa and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

This was followed by y-o-y price gains in the range of 15-20% in Barrie, Hamilton, Niagara, Guelph, Brantford, Cambridge, Grey Bruce-Owen Sound, Huron Perth, the Lakelands, London & St. Thomas, North Bay, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Montreal.

Prices were up in the 10-15% range compared to last September in the GTA, Oakville-Milton, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, Mississauga, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Greater Moncton.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were around 5% in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan Valley, Regina, Saskatoon and Quebec City. Gains were about half that in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, as well and in St. John’s, and prices were more or less flat y-o-y in Calgary and Edmonton.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price set another record in September 2020, topping the $600,000 mark for the first time ever at more than $604,000. This was up 17.5% from the same month last year.

 

Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand by households that have maintained their level of income during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, and travel sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.  

Dr. Sherry Cooper

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.

Throne Speech: Canada’s Response to COVID-19

Latest News Michelle Foster 28 Sep

Throne Speech: Canada’s Response to COVID-19

Prorogation on August 18, following the resignation of Finance Minister Morneau, a new session of Parliament, and a new speech from the throne was meant to allow the government to hit the reset button. And for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, to try and move past the summer of controversy involving WE Charity and the Canada Student Service Grant.

THE FISCAL PICTURE

There was little opposition earlier this year when the federal government backstopped nearly every economic sector through emergency benefits, wage subsidies, and other programs. But with the federal deficit approaching $400 billion, there are growing calls to temper new spending.

The new Finance Minister, Christia Freeland, has consulted with former prime minister Paul Martin, who erased deficits as finance minister more than 20 years ago. And she claimed this week to be “well aware” of concerns about federal spending and the fiscal balance but said getting more people back to work was a top priority, along with managing a second wave of COVID-19 infections.

“The single most important economic policy of our government and the best thing we can do for our economy is to keep coronavirus under control,” Freeland said. “I can’t emphasize that too much. Some people sometimes like to talk about a trade-off between good health policy and good economic policy. I could not disagree more strongly.”

Today’s throne speech is one of the most highly-anticipated throne speeches in recent memory–amid a slowing economic recovery and rising COVID case counts. Though not an economic blueprint, it lays out Ottawa’s vision for what policy supports it believes are needed to carry the country through the next phase of recovery.

Measures already floated include improved permanent support for the unemployed–building on exceptional levels of policy support delivered over the spring and summer. Estimates for how much all of that will cost will await a fall fiscal update and subsequent budget.

COVID-19 CASE COUNTS TICK HIGHER AS THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY SLOWS

A barrage of reports issued in the past week reinforced what will probably be a historically large, and yet still only partial, bounce-back in economic activity over the summer in Canada. Home resales surged again in August. Reports on retail, wholesale, and manufacturing trade for July left GDP still on track to rebound 40% (at an annualized rate) in the third quarter. But that would only retrace only about 57% of the decline over the first half of the year. And early data – including Royal Bank’s tracking of credit card purchases–continue to flag a slowing pace of recovery.

Meantime, virus case counts are being watched more closely again in Canada, given a faster uptick in recent weeks, particularly in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta. This latest wave of infections has been more concentrated among less vulnerable age cohorts, meaning fewer hospitalizations. Still, easing in containment measures has already been paused, and in some spots, reversed. At a minimum, the increased spread is another reminder that there are limits to how much the economy will recover while the virus threat remains.

In today’s speech from the throne, the Governor General was expected to lay out the government’s vision for the pandemic recovery. It won’t be easy, with COVID-19 cases on the rise and investor confidence wobbling. While the economy has improved since April lows, the recovery continues to be fragile–especially in the face of a possible second wave. Where should the government focus its investments? And if it survives the confidence vote, what could we expect in its next budget?

Trudeau insisted that he does not want a campaign soon — but would be ready if necessary. “I think it’s irresponsible to say that an election would be irresponsible,” Trudeau told reporters. “Our country and our institutions are stronger than that, and if there has to be an election, we’ll figure it out.”

“I don’t think that’s what Canadians want. I don’t think that’s what opposition parties want, and it’s certainly not what the government wants.”

A MATTER OF CONFIDENCE

Regardless of how many specifics or dollar figures are in the speech from the throne, it will be a confidence test for the Trudeau government, 15 seats shy of a majority in the House of Commons.

Without support from one major opposition party, an election is likely. But it’s not clear if that’s the kind of reset button opposition leaders are ready to press.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh wants a pledge to extend the Canada Emergency Response Benefit while the Employment Insurance system is reformed. And he wants a clear pledge to extend access to paid sick leave.

Singh told CPAC he heard no specific commitments from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when the two spoke last week. But he will be watching for signals from the government, not just in the speech itself, but in the debate and legislation that follows.

From new Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, recently given a positive COVID-19 diagnosis: “Let’s see the plan, and if it’s for the betterment of the country, we’ll support parts of that plan. If we don’t see it, we’ll put forward our own vision”.

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, has threatened to try and force an election over the WE affair unless Trudeau steps down. And the party wants increased health care transfers to the provinces, more support for seniors, respect for Quebec jurisdictions, and support for supply-managed farmers.

But their leader will not be on Parliament Hill as the House of Commons resumes; Yves-François Blanchet has tested positive for COVID-19 and tweeted Tuesday that he and O’Toole would wait to give their formal replies to the speech until after their isolation periods had ended.

ACTUAL MEASURES IN THE THRONE SPEECH

Overcoming pandemic is the key theme of the speech. COVID-19 has been incredibly hard for parents, especially women, young people, older adults, and Black and racialized Canadians. Low wage earners have been hardest hit.

Fight the pandemic and save lives

  • Faster testing, short-term closure orders in high-case areas
  • Help businesses in those areas
  • Additional PPE funding
  • More funding to keep schools safe
  • Vaccine strategy
  • Immunity task force led by scientists

Supporting Canadians Through this Crisis

  • Emergency Wage Subsidy extended
  • Job loss supports
  • Government creates jobs, assists training, youth employment strategy,
  • CERB recipients now supported by EI system–broadened to include self-employed and gig workers
  • Action Plan for women–child care services, create a Canada-wide early childhood education system, after school programs, support for women entrepreneurs.
  • Aid to small businesses
  • Improve business credit, assistance to sectors hardest hit

Build back better to create a more resilient Canada

  • Stimulus for recovery that is done prudently
  • Reduce income inequality by raising taxes stock options and wealth
  • Increase taxes on the digital giants that do business in Canada
  • Defend the strength of the middle class
  • Fighting climate change and commitment to sustainable growth
  • Long-term care homes assistance, new standards for care
  • Increase Old Age Security at age 75
  • Primary care physicians for every region
  • Mental Health resources increased
  • National Universal Pharmacare
  • Telemedicine
  • Limiting firearms
  • National Action Plan on gender-based violence
  • Affordable housing growth
  • All Canadians have access to highspeed internet
  • Affordable regional air services
  • Eliminate chronic homelessness
  • Enhance First-time homebuyer incentive
  • Address food insecurity and enhance local food supply chains, protect food workers
  • Support farmers
  • Introduce the most extensive training and education and accreditation programs in Canadian history
  • Create good jobs in climate action sectors
  • Exceed Canada’s 2030 climate goals
  • More transit options, zero-emissions vehicles and batteries, electric charging stations
  • Cut corporate tax rate in half for clean technology companies
  • Support natural resource and oil companies as they move towards zero-emission and clean-energy goals
  • Ban single-use plastics next year
  • Clean water and irrigation plans

Stand up for who we are as Canadians–welcoming and fights discrimination

  • We take care of each other, welcome newcomers, embrace two official languages
  • Address systemic racism
  • Help Indigenous, First Nations, and Mate peoples
  • Take action on online hate, support employment of Blacks and racialized people
  • Reform criminal justice system and law enforcement
  • Encourage immigration and family unification
  • Invest more in developing economies
  • Support human rights, bring detained Canadians home

BOTTOM LINE

This is an ambitious agenda. Many of these proposals are sweeping commitments. Spending details will come later, likely in a fiscal update in November or December.

The speech did not extend the CERB, which the NDP said was a condition of support. Also, the NDP asked for paid sick leave, which was not mentioned.

Quickly following the speech,  the Conservatives’ initial response was that they could not support this proposal. Among other things, they berated that there was no fiscal framework or anchor to prevent further downgrades of Canadian credit ratings. According to deputy leader Candice Bergen, Conservatives will not support a speech from the throne filled with “buzzwords” and “grand gestures” that ignores the ailing energy sector, farmers, the unemployed, and struggling small business owners.

The political posturing will continue.

In the next week, the speech will be debated, during which time, the government can make changes.

 

Original Post by:

Dr. Sherry Cooper

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.

It’s All About The Property

General Michelle Foster 26 Aug

 

Photo by SevenStorm JUHASZIMRUS from Pexels

With all of the rule changes imposed by the federal and provincial governments around mortgage financing and real estate it may be more difficult to access financing. But don’t take it personally – sometimes it’s not you it’s the property.
When lenders underwrite your application for approval they look at you as a borrower but they also evaluate the property. Here are some things to consider before you purchase.

The type of property — house, condo, duplex, heritage, etc.
1. Especially for condo properties the lender (and insurer if required) will look at the age of the building, the history of maintenance or lack there of and the location for marketability. Some lenders will limit their exposure with a maximum number of units in a building or avoid lending on buildings after a certain age for the property.
2. Properties with more than 4 units in them such as a 5-plex will be considered commercial real estate and the lender will evaluate on that basis.
3. Heritage homes (registered or designated) require a more detailed review and special consideration for financing.
4. Leasehold and co-op properties also have specific requirements for the maximum loan to value so more down payment may be required. More documentation will be required and interest rates will vary.

The location of the property— lenders always consider their risk in each market.
1. If the location limits the potential resale value for the building in the event of default by the borrower they may not lend on that property. Some lenders will reduce the loan amount for a building located out of major market areas or add a premium to the interest rate.
2. For properties with water access only or with no access to municipal utilities (water, heat, light and sewer) more details are required to assess the lender risk. Insurance coverage, water testing, seasonal access and condition of the property will be strong considerations.

The use for the property— personal or investment, recreational, previous activities.
1. If the owner occupied house has a suite then rental income may be considered.
2. If the house is purchased for investment then rental income is considered and the interest rate for rental rather than owner occupied is assigned. In these cases the rental income can increase the resale value of the property. However, the appraisal of the property will be reviewed to ensure the condition of the property and if any renovations were completed to add value.
3. There are lending options for a previous grow-op that come with higher interest rates and costs
4. In the case of a condo the property may have a commercial component in the building (shops below) or allowable space in the unit for business (live/work designation). In these cases some lenders may not have an appetite for financing. In some cases the lender may allow with approval by the insurer (CMHC, etc).
5. Purchasing a second home for recreational use will require a review if it is seasonal or year-round access.
6. If the property requires renovations the extent and cost to value of the property will be considered.

Before you start looking at any property, talk with a mortgage professional to go over your financing options and common pitfalls to look out for. We can discuss the specific requirements for any variation in the type of property you may want to purchase and allow ample time for a full financing review before subject removal on a purchase.

For example:
If you shift from a standard condo to a lease-hold property your down payment amount will likely change.
If you want to move to a small rural town you may have to pay a higher rate or have less options and more documentation required on the property.
If you buy a home in one province but may be transferred to another province, some lenders such as credit unions are provincially based so you can’t port the mortgage.
If the condo you wish to buy has no depreciation report, a low contingency fund or big special levies pending, these will all be a red flag for the lender and should be a strong consideration for you as a buyer. A more thorough review will be required.

Always consult an experienced independent mortgage professional for all of your financing needs and to help you make an informed decision.

 

Original post from: Pauline Tonkin, Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

Pauline is part of DLC Innovative Mortgage Solutions based in Coquitlam, BC

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